It's fantasy politics

KISSING Cecilia behind the bike sheds was a bad idea, but I was only 10 and wasn't to know any better.

The thing is, Cecilia was not the school's most popular girl, and that quick and meaningless kiss landed me very briefly with a devoted admirer... and a lot of bad jokes from my mates.

You expect more foresight from grown-ups, and especially from grown-ups who manage to get themselves elected to high office.

The party conference season that is now upon us could be renamed the Bad Ideas season, as politicians desperately blow ill-judged kisses at the electorate.

This year is a corker, with all to play for in the next General Election, whenever that comes (and it will be soon).

Earlier in the week the Confederation of British Industry, which doesn't need to win votes but obviously fancies itself as a power broker, called for higher university fees.

This is the same mentality that unplugs the TV and takes it to the pawn shop when money is short. You may get enough to keep you going for the rest of the week, but eventually you'll need a new television – and that's going to set you back even more.

The intelligent person finds a way to earn money, not merely a place to pawn the family silver.

Britain's students are the family silver, and if we discourage them from getting degrees, the whole country will suffer in the long term.

Many of the CBI's leadership are well past their sell-by date and will be comfortably retired when any skills gap appears some 20 years down the road.

That wasn't the end of the bad news for education.

On Sunday Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, said the country could save barrow-loads of money by making schools more efficient.

He boasted that he could shave £2billion of the schools budget by hacking away at what he called the bureaucracy (and what many others would call heads and deputy heads).

One of his big ideas is to get rid of half the head teachers by creating multi-school federations.

Why don't we get rid of Balls at the same time and create a new federated government department: how about the Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries, Food and Schools – or Maffs for short – which is clearly not Balls's strong subject.

Anyway, I thought it was the job of departmental ministers to defend their budgets against the ravages of the Treasury. We've heard of turkeys voting for Christmas: Balls is the turkey who also volunteered to do the carving.

The rest of the conference season promises to be a fun-filled festival of fantasy politics.

DRACONIAN new laws are on the way to stop children petting animals, as a knee-jerk reaction to the E. coli scare.

Everyone has known about this risk for as long as there were petting farms, so this response is a genuinely bad idea.

Four farms – one of them in Devon – have shut since the outbreak came to light at Godstone Farm in Surrey.

The strain of E. coli responsible is potentially fatal, though none of those affected in this outbreak has actually died, thankfully.

All of these petting farms have prominent signs urging visitors to wash their hands, but there are always people who see life as someone else's fault.

We like to hang our hats on particular causes, and those can be quite illogical.

It was always thus: back in 1996 Thomas Watt Hamilton walked into Dunblane Primary School in Scotland armed with two 9mm Browning HP pistols and two Smith & Wesson .357 Magnum revolvers.

He killed 16 children and an adult, and then shot himself.

The political reaction that followed was as ridiculous as the massacre was dreadful. The Government banned all handguns. To this day, members of our national shooting team have to train in France.

At the time of Dunblane, around 250 children a year died on the roads, which puts the school massacre in perspective.

THE very intelligent Dr David Salter may be thinking his choice of words was also a bad idea.

The Plymouth City Council Cabinet member and councillor for Plympton Chaddlewood was reacting with outrage last weekend to a shocking cloud of smoke from Langage power station that enveloped Plympton and parts west on Friday.

Centrica, which will operate the power station, has a liaison committee to keep in touch with the local community, but the committee was not warned about Friday's belch.

"I see no point in continuing with the Langage Local Liaison Committee, of which I am a member," Dr Salter said.

Centrica, seizing the high ground with relief, quickly pointed out that Dr Salter, though a member, had not attended a meeting since 2007.

The good doctor, spluttering, told this column that Centrica's point was "a red herring".

He may be right about that, but it's worth remembering that in politics red herrings swim just as well as any other fish.

DRAKE councillor Steve Ricketts has found a new ally in his long-running battle to overturn the ban on smoking in public places.

David Hockney, the artist, only slightly better known than Ricketts, is backing calls for a review of the smoking ban which he says is destroying "bohemia".

Hockney wants a separate room set aside for smokers, and that seems like a good compromise.

I'd never want to go back to the smoky old days, though, and it's hard to see how landlords would get round health and safety legislation that now protects staff from having to work in a smoky atmosphere.

Unless, I suppose, the smokers volunteer to clean their smoking rooms the morning after.

Only thinking out loud, Steve.

WE HOPE that anyone travelling from Plymouth to a renewable energy "masterclass" in North Cornwall will car-share.

Good Energy, a company which boasts that it supplies 100 per cent renewable electricity, is running masterclasses on how to generate the stuff.

The first is at the company's wind farm in Delabole, North Cornwall, on Saturday, October 31.

The workshops are aimed at microgenerators wishing to provide energy on a domestic or small commercial scale and at commercial generators who want to generate and export electricity.

Tickets are £20, from GoodEnergy@rem-events.com or phone 0870 043 3929.

THANKS to reader Les Kingwell, who draws attention to Plymouth City Council's latest list of job vacancies: "Head of value for money and efficiency". The pay? An eye-watering £58,000.

Some contradiction, surely? How many potholes could you fill with that money?

THE inscription on the New York City General Post Office promises that "Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night" will stop its couriers.

A British version would have to include a get-out clause for strikes, which are now sweeping the country. Mind you, the mail did get through to one reader's house. It was delivered to the right house number... in the wrong street.

With delicious irony, the letter was from the Posties' own union, the CWU, and the envelope revealed that it contained "Important ballot material".

Let's hope the intended recipient doesn't feel too strongly, one way or the other, about getting a vote on whether to strike.

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The Office Season 6 Episode 4 & 5: The Wedding One Hour Special (Video)

After five long seasons of office flirtation Pam Beesly and Jim Halpert finally get married in The Office Season 6 episodes 4 and 5. The Halpert/Beesly wedding will get a full hour of The Office dedicated to it tonight. I'm sure we're in for some inappropriate jokes and interruptions from the one and only Michael Scott.

As you will see in the previews below Michael has a kick-ass present to give to the newlyweds. This should be a classic episode as weddings in sitcoms usually bring out the best in the writers. Check out the official Pam Beesly & Jim Halpert wedding site here.

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Creeping Up to 5 Digits Yet Again

It is only a number -- the stock market equivalent of an appliance chain's millionth customer, or the gazillionth hamburger served at McDonald's.

Still, the Dow, which closed up 124.17 points, at 9,789.36, on Monday, is within reach of 10,000. Who would have thought?

At the depths of Wall Street's crisis, when traders were despairing and shares of Citigroup were trading for just over a dollar, Dow 5,000 seemed a likelier prospect than this.

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But now, one of the most-watched measures of the financial world is on the cusp of jumping back to five-digit territory.

That does not mean the economy's problems are over, or that 401(k)'s are going to be made whole anytime soon. In fact, this milestone could even stall the rally if enough investors use it as an opportunity to cash in their gains, analysts say.

But a big round number is often seen as a way of assessing the market's health, and whether it has enough juice to climb much higher.

"Will 10,000 make a difference to some people?" said Stuart Freeman, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. "It's psychological, but if enough people act on it, it's meaningful. The higher a market goes, the more that those on the sideline sit there and are concerned they're missing something. It takes a while for their fear to wear off." Indeed, investors who pulled out of the market as Wall Street crumbled would have missed a Dow that has rebounded more than 3,000 points in seven months. The Nasdaq index is up 35 percent since the start of the year, and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is up more than 17 percent.

Some of the recession's biggest winners are again flying high, with stocks like Goldman Sachs closing at $182.50 a share. JPMorgan Chase reported nearly $3 billion in quarterly profits this summer. Shares of Apple are flirting with record highs.

Much of the run-up has been fueled by signs that some corners of Wall Street, helped by Washington's taxpayer lifelines, have returned to functioning almost normally. Corporate mergers and public stock offerings appear to have rebounded in recent weeks, pulling the market higher. Short-term loans are flowing. Companies with better credit can again raise money without paying huge risk premiums.

Yet the Dow at 10,000 could also herald a pause in the white-knuckle rally.

Analysts are divided about whether the stock market is overpriced or underpriced now, but stocks have gotten much more expensive since the main indexes hit their lowest points in a decade in early March. A share of Bank of America, which was selling for a little more than $3 in March, now costs $17. Shares of the American International Group, the corporate image of the financial crisis, have surged sixfold, although the price is still a small fraction of what it was before the government rescued the company.

And even if the recession is technically nearing an end, 15 million people are still unemployed, and stagnant incomes and higher rates of personal saving could reduce corporate revenue growth to a trickle for years to come.

Then there are the potential new waves of mortgage foreclosures; fresh losses in commercial real estate; consumer defaults on credit cards; and the possibility of another bubble in oil prices, all of which could prevent markets from enjoying anything like exuberance for a while.

"The bottom line reality is, it's still an economy that's in the midst of a major change," said Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management. "The real debate that underlies the Dow 10,000 story is the raging debate about what is going to be the form of the recovery."

The enthusiasm over that round figure is now a decade-long phenomenon. Consider this: President Bill Clinton was in office when the Dow Jones industrial average first closed above 10,000 in March 1999. It retreated in the years after the dot-com bubble deflated, then retook 10,000 in late 2003 and peaked at 14,000 in October 2007. We all know the cataclysm that followed.

So Dow 10,000 does not mean that the market is finally edging ahead; it is simply catching up to where it was a decade ago. "It's been a bad 10 years, a really bad 10 years," said David Bianco, chief United States equity strategist at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

The constant march of inflation also dilutes the meaning of 10,000. Prices rose an average of about 2.8 percent each year in the last decade, meaning the Dow would have to reach about 13,200 in today's numbers to equal its value then. If this limbo seems dreary, imagine spending the next decade talking about Dow 10,000.

The Dow first closed above 100 points in 1906, when Theodore Roosevelt was president and American Car and Foundry and National Lead were members of the index. And it did not go much higher from there. It was still trading close to 100 as the 1920s began, then spiked at the end of the Roaring Twenties. But it crashed during the Depression, and was once again hovering around 100 as the United States entered World War II.

In 1966, the Dow came within 20 points of hitting 1,000, then fell off sharply. The stock index kept bumping its head against that threshold for more than 15 years as the American economy endured high inflation, oil embargoes, price controls and regular swings in the stock markets.

Not until 1982 did the Dow move decisively above 1,000.

"You can spend years around a particular milestone," said Tobias Levkovich, chief United States equity strategist at Citigroup. "I'm not talking about a year or two. I'm talking about way more than 10. They're not short-term phenomena."

The New York Times ran a front-page article about the Dow's first trip across the 10,000 marker in 1999. This article is being written in September 2009. Investors should hope there will not be a similar article in 2019.

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Jesse Livermore: Lessons From A Legendary Trader

Born in 1877, Jesse Livermore is one of the greatest traders that few people know about. While a book on his life written by Edwin Lefèvre, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" (1923), is highly regarded as a must-read for all traders, it deserves more than a passing recommendation. Livermore, who is the author of "How to Trade in Stocks"(1940), was one of the greatest traders of all time. At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today's dollars roughly equates to $1.5-13 billion, depending on the index used.

The enormity of his success becomes even more staggering when considering that he traded on his own, using his own funds, his own system, and not trading anyone else's capital in conjunction. There is no question that times have changed since Mr. Livermore traded stocks and commodities. Markets were thinly traded, compared to today, and the moves volatile. Jesse speaks of sliding major stocks multiple points with the purchase or sale of 1,000 shares. And yet, despite the difference in the markets, such automation increased liquidity, technology, regulation and a host of other factors that still drive the markets today.

The Test of Time
Given that this trader's rules still apply, and the price patterns he looked for are still very relevant today, we will look at a summary of the patterns Jesse traded, as well his timing indicators and trading rules.

Price Patterns
Jesse did not have the convenience of modern-day charts to graph his price patterns. Instead, the patterns were simply prices that he kept track of in a ledger. He only liked trading in stocks that were moving in a trend, and avoided ranging markets. When prices approached a pivotal point, he waited to see how they reacted.

For instance, if a stock made a $50 low, bounced up to $60 and was now heading back down to $50, Jesse's rules stipulated waiting until the pivotal point was in play in order to trade. If that same stock moved to $48, he would enter a trade on the short side. If it bounced up off the $50 level, he would enter long at $52, closely watching the $60 level, which is also a "pivotal point." A rise above $60 would trigger an addition to the position (pyramiding) at $63, for example. Failure to penetrate or hold above $60 would result in a liquidation of the long positions. The $2 buffer on the breakout in this example is not exact; the buffer will differ based on stock price and volatility. We want a buffer between actual breakout and entry that allows us to get into the move early, but will result in fewer false breakouts.

While Jesse did not trade ranges, he did trade breakouts from ranging markets. He used a similar strategy as above, entering on a new high or low but using a buffer to reduce the likelihood of false breakouts.

Price patterns, combined with volume analysis, were also used to determine if the trade would be kept open. Some of the criteria Jesse used to determine if he was in the right position were:

• Increased volume on breakout.
• The first few days after the break prices should move in the breakout direction
• A normal reaction occurs where prices retrace somewhat against the trend, but volume is lower on retracements than it was in the trending direction.
• As the normal reaction ends, volume increases once again in the direction of the trend.

Deviations from these patterns were warning signals and, if confirmed by price movements back through pivotal points, indicated that exited or unrealized profits should be taken.

Timing the Market
Any trader knows that being right a little too early or a little too late can be as detrimental as simply being wrong. Timing is crucial in the financial markets, and nothing provides better timing than price itself. The pivotal points mentioned above occur in individual stocks and market indexes, as well. Let price confirm the trade before entering large positions.

Jesse Livermore believed no matter how much we "feel" that we know what is happening, we need to wait for the market to confirm our thesis. And only when it does do we make our trades - and we must do so promptly.

Trading Rules
The trading rules that follow are simple, and have been included in many trading plans by many traders since they were created nearly a century ago. They are still valid today, and were created under Jesse's truism: "There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be, because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."

• Trade with the trend. Buy in a bull market, short in a bear market.
• Don't trade when there aren't clear opportunities.
• Trade using the pivotal points.
• Wait for the market to confirm opinion before entering. Patience leads to "the big money."
• Let profits run. Close trades that show a loss (good trades generally show profit right away).
• Trade with a stop, and know it before you enter.
• Exit trades where the prospect of further profits is remote (trend is over or waning).
• Trade the leading stocks in each sector; trade the strongest stocks in a bull market, or the weakest stocks in a bear market.
• Don't average down a losing position.
• Don't meet a margin call; close the position instead.
• Don't follow too many stocks.

Summing Up Jesse Livermore's Strategy
Jesse was highly successful, but also lost his fortune several times. He was always the first to admit when he made a mistake, and when he lost money it came down to two potential culprits:

1. The rules for trading were not fully formulated (not the case for most of his losses).
2. The rules were not followed.

For today's trader, these are still likely the culprits that keep profits at bay. To be profitable, we must actually create a profitable trading system, and then we must adhere to it in actual trading.
Jesse outlined a simple trading system for us: wait for pivotal points before entering a trade. When the points come into play, trade them using a buffer, trading in the direction of the overall market. Let the price dictate our actions and stay with profitable trades, until there is good reason to exit the trade. Losses should be small and trading should be avoided when there are no clear opportunities. When there are trading opportunities, trade stocks that are most likely to move the most.

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Don't Go Broke Buying Bankrupt Stocks

Sometimes, when stocks drop precipitously, they can easily over do it on the downside, as panic-selling ensues. These large declines can provide an attractive entry point for investors. The problem is that the biggest declines in stocks often occur the day that a company files for bankruptcy. Does that mean that bankrupt stocks can be a good buy? No, although some people don't realize that. Before buying that company that just filed Chapter 11, know the facts, and find out why any amount of money put in is bound to be lost.

When a Company Liquidates
Companies do not want to go bankrupt. Management will lose their jobs, and usually have equity at risk in the company. Companies declare or get forced into bankruptcy as a last resort, because they are having trouble paying their debt and need to gain protection from creditors. If the company liquidates or reorganizes, it needs to pay back everyone else in line before the common shareholders.

The hierarchy of claims goes like this: Bondholders including all classes (ie. subordinated, unsubordinated, secured, unsecured) have first claim to any assets or payments. After that the company may need to make payments for taxes, employees, trustees, etc. Then comes preferred equity holders, and, if there are any, the common equity holders get the leftovers. It's unlikely that shareholders receive anything.

When a Company Restructures
Even when the company will remain a going concern after emerging from chapter 11, the old shares are generally canceled with no payment to holders. New shares are issued, generally as a form of payment to debt holders.

An example of this was Delta Airlines. Delta filed Chapter 11 in 2005 and, following the filing, common shares traded over the counter on the pink sheets. Under its plan of reorganization, Delta was to issue new shares upon emergence from bankruptcy and cancel the old shares, with holders receiving no value. Delta even set up an online "Restructuring FAQs for Investors", where they specifically outlined how old shareholders will receive nothing. The website stated:

Under the proposed plan of reorganization, current holders of Delta common stock would receive no distribution, and the securities would be canceled upon the effective date of the plan. Delta has indicated for some time that the company expected its common stock would not have any value under any plan of reorganization the company might propose, which is not uncommon in Chapter 11 proceedings.

The company also explicitly pointed out: "Since the expected value of the Company will be less than creditors' claims, we will not be able to exchange 'old stock' for 'new stock'."

Despite this clear declaration that holders of old stock would receive nothing, shares exchanged hands at 13 cents just a week before the shares were set to be canceled. Thirteen cents doesn't seem like a lot of money, but for those who were buying 10,000 shares, the loss a week later was a very real $1,300.

Why Bankrupt Stocks Don't Trade at Zero
As we've seen with Delta, the residual value of the shares is zero, so why doesn't every stock trade at zero after declaring bankruptcy? Stocks generally get close to zero on the day of the bankrupt, but can rise afterwards - sometimes even doubling or tripling. This affords some lucky individuals big gains. It is basically equivalent to a lottery ticket and generally has no basis whatsoever. So speculators, much like those who ride other penny stocks, make quick trades in the stocks trying to make big profits, but they also experience big losses. This type of strategy makes little sense with bankrupt stocks, as someone is buying something worth nothing, and hoping to sell it to someone else for more. It is an extreme example of the greater fool theory.

The other reason why a bankrupt stock won't trade at zero is because in rare cases some value may emerge for the common shareholders to claim. This will occur in a situation where the company is able to sell assets for higher than expected prices and can pay off everyone in line, and still have some left over. This, I remind you, is very rare. As stated above, the reason a company declares or gets forced into bankruptcy is because it cannot afford to pay its creditors.

What About Price-to-Book Value?
A commonly used metric to judge the value of a company is its book value. When looking at book value, the stock of a bankrupt company may look compelling, as it will trade for a small fraction of book value. This, however, cannot be used to determine that there is value in the stock. First, book value contains many things that are of little or no value during bankruptcy, such as goodwill. On top of this, any assets that get sold off in a bankruptcy proceeding will likely receive distressed prices, as buyers will not pay up for assets in liquidation.

The Bottom Line
Don't buy bankrupt stocks. Unless you have some great research on the stock and the bankruptcy proceedings, and have truly figured out that the company can generate enough cash to pay all claims and then some, there is no reason to do it. While buying a stock that was trading at $20 and is now at 20 cents may seem compelling, the vast majority of the time that 20 cents is worth nothing. So why throw away money and look like a fool? If you're looking for something else to buy, I have a great price on a bridge in Brooklyn.

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The period of insane market volatility is over

Wall Street will celebrate a not-so-happy anniversary on Tuesday.

A year ago on Sept. 29, the Dow Jones industrial average suffered its worst point drop in history, plummeting nearly 778 points, after the House of Representatives rejected the first draft of the $700 billion financial rescue plan. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each plunged about 9% that day.

Of course, the controversial Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, ultimately wound up passing the House a few days later after the Senate approved a modified bill. Some politicians who initially voted against the bailout even attributed fears of another big sell-off as a reason for changing their minds.

The market chaos didn't end with the passage of TARP though. Over the next few months, the Dow suffered its second-largest, fourth-largest and fifth-largest point drops ever -- but also its biggest, second-biggest and third-biggest point gains in history.

Looking back, it truly is amazing how jittery and uncertain investors were about where the economy was heading. Between the time that Lehman Brothers collapsed on Sept. 15 and the end of 2008, the S&P 500 moved up or down at least 3% in one day a stunning 29 times.

Fortunately, the days of insane market volatility appear to be over. Even Monday's triple-digit point rally in the Dow was relatively tame. The Dow gained only 1.3% while the S&P 500 was up 1.8%.

The S&P 500 has experienced a 3% swing only 20 times so far this year. And that could be a sign that the recent rally, despite some concerns about running too far too fast, could be for real.

"The lack of volatility is a sign of good behavior. This is what you should see at the start of a bull market. We've moved from a period of crisis to a period of early recovery," said Todd Campbell, president of E.B. Capital Markets, a Durham, N.H.-based research firm catering to institutional money managers.

In fact, when you look even more closely at the times the market had a big up or down day, almost all of them took place during the first quarter -- a time when investors were fearing the worst for the economy.

None of the 3% gains or losses in the S&P 500 have occurred during the third quarter, and only four of them took place in the second quarter. That means the rally has been an orderly move higher, largely absent of the bipolar market shifts that characterized the fourth quarter of 2008.

Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist with Edward Jones in St. Louis, said it makes sense that stocks are no longer being whipsawed like passengers on a Tilt-A-Whirl.

Skrainka said TARP and other bailout programs, despite their many critics, has helped restore confidence in the banking sector, stock market and economy at large.

"We don't have the extreme volatility anymore because we've reached greater stability in the financial markets. Credit markets have mostly returned to normal," he said. "Many of the problems that were keys to the panic have been addressed and it looks like the economy is coming out of recession."

This doesn't mean that investors can cavalierly dismiss some of the economic concerns that still exist.

Commercial real estate may be a lingering headache for banks. The national unemployment rate is inching closer to 10% and is not expected to fall anytime soon.

And even though large companies are expected to post decent profits for the third quarter, much of that will be due to cost-cutting and the weak dollar as opposed to real revenue growth.

Bill Stone, chief investment strategist with PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia, said one worry is that investors are starting to expect a robust and rapid rebound in both corporate profits and the economy. That may not come to pass.

In fact, weaker-than-anticipated reports regarding housing sales and durable goods orders helped push stocks lower last week. That just goes to show that the recovery may take longer to unfold and may not necessarily be a smooth one.

"We're in a recovery. But there was mixed economic data last week and the market didn't like it. So investors could get the shakes," Stone said. "When you set the bar higher, there's a better chance you knock the bar off and fall down. The risks have increased."

Skrainka conceded as much. He said that sooner or later, stocks will have to cool off. After all, the S&P 500 is now up nearly 60% since its March low.

"It's been a remarkable rally -- any way you measure it," he said. "So there will be some kind of correction and investors need to factor that in to their planning."

All that said, Skrainka thinks that a correction -- technically defined as a 10% drip from a recent high -- could be just a temporary pause in what may be a new bull market.

Stone agrees. If stocks do pull back, he doesn't think it will be for long. And he is hopeful that such a decline will be as gradual as the recent run-up has been rather than a sudden, sharp sell-off.

"Short term, you have to make the case that stocks are overbought. But the market is now viewed much more stably," he said. "So much of the concerns last year were that we were sinking into the abyss and that the financial system had cracked. We've come a long way since then."

Talkback: Is it a good sign that the markets are no longer as volatile as they were a year ago? Share your comments below.

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Professor Buffett's Library

Amazon.com recently listed more than 200,000 titles under the keyword "investing." Some of those books are useful. Others are a waste of time. And many, designed to exploit our ignorance and greed, are downright dangerous.

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How do you approach this slew of investment information without getting overwhelmed? Every month, financial writers and journalists churn out hundreds of articles that aim to explain the financial world to ordinary investors. The financial media is full of investment picks, ideas, strategies and other advice.

Books still play an important role, however, in mastering the art of intelligent investing. Selecting the right tome can be a daunting proposition. The first place to start is with the basics. The best investment books avoid the sleazy manipulation of the get-rich-quick schemes you'll find in many books, magazines and, newsletters. Instead, they seek to impart the hard-won wisdom of the great investors to readers like us.

Which books should you read?

Books can serve to strengthen your fundamental investing knowledge while providing you with an important historical prospective.

In addition to several guides and anthologies that offer timeless advice, a number of books about Warren Buffett's philosophy provide a valuable foundation for any long-term investor.

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While Warren Buffett has never penned his own book of investing advice, several stand-out books have been written about his investing style.

Even if you stick to mutual funds, rather than picking individual stocks, Warren Buffett's method of stock selection can help you evaluate the skills and strategy of a mutual fund manager.

Here are some picks. The best investors, like Warren Buffett, use a strong understanding of the fundamentals to inform their personal investment philosophies. One good place to begin developing your own foundation is an anthology.

Charles Ellis, a money manager himself, compiled Classics: An Investor's Anthology for an audience of students and professional money managers. It includes many short pieces by respected investment thinkers -- the kind of material that has appeared in professional journals over the years.

When it comes to economic trends, history often repeats itself. Familiarizing yourself with the history of investment ideas is one of the most effective ways to prepare for the future.

The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need isn't quite what its title claims, but it's one of the books every investor should read. The book was written by Andrew Tobias and first published back in 1978, when very few readers sought out books about personal finance. It became a national best seller for two reasons: the book is funny and creative.

The revised version is worth reading whether you are a novice or an expert. Tobias' ideas about taxes, commodities, stocks, insurance and other financial matters will help you rethink some of the conventional wisdom that gets many investors in trouble.

Want a good story? Have a look at Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist. This lively, well-researched biography is a great book about his life and his investment methods.

It's also great background for readers who want to dip into The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America that is edited by Lawrence A. Cunningham. Buffett has never written a book, but his annual letters to shareholders are famous for their wit and intelligence. Cunningham has compiled some of the best material in this slim book. This book serves as a window onto his methods and his beliefs.

Here's a brief sample: "I've said many times that when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact. I just wish I hadn't been so energetic in creating examples. My behavior has matched that admitted by Mae West: 'I was Snow White, but I drifted.'"

The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life is unique among other Buffett pieces. The author, Alice Schroeder, sits down with the legendary investor to discuss everything from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) to his family life. This book is the closest thing to a Buffett autobiography on shelves today.

To truly understand Buffett, the best place to start is with his inspiration. Buffett got his start as a student of Benjamin Graham, the father of securities analysis. Graham's 1934 classic, The Intelligent Investor, is a wonderful introduction to the master's methods. The book has sold more than a million copies in hardcover; more importantly, it offers insight into how Graham thought about investing -- in particular his notion of a margin of safety. Graham advocated buying cheap stocks of companies with sound financials, establishing a "margin of safety" by purchasing the stock below its intrinsic value.

The Intelligent Investor suggests that stocks can be prudent investments, given the right approach. That idea shocked people who had endured the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Depression. Jason Zweig, a senior writer for Money magazine, has done an excellent job in the latest issue of the magazine of updating the book without undermining its essential wisdom.

It was Graham's lessons that helped Buffett find winning companies such as Coca-Cola (KO), Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Nalco (NLC).

For a little hint to readers who may find the 368-page book daunting, Buffett has gone on the record saying that the most crucial chapters in "The Intelligent Investor" are 8 and 20.

Navigating through the sea of investment advice books can be a daunting task. The Buffett basics are a good place to start, and the wisest investors will stay on top of new investing trends while keeping in mind the fundamentals.

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Currency ETFs: Dollar Hedging and the Carry Trade

Currency ETFs really showed their usefulness during the last two years. Not only did they help investors avoid calamitous losses in the stock market, they also sidestepped a dramatic slide by the US dollar against nearly every other currency.

A currency ETF typically exchanges Dollars for foreign currencies while earning a bit of additional interest income in short-term instruments.

For passive single-currency ETFs the first question is: does the it track the target currency reasonably well? The answer is generally yes. In the popular Euro arena, two our of three ETFs track quite well and the third does so adequately:

Both WisdomTree Dreyfus Euro ETF (NYSEArca:EU - News) at .35% annual expenses and CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEArca:FXE - News) at .40% fees hover around the Euro spot price consistently. iPath EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETN (NYSEArca:ERO - News), with .40% fees, does a less impressive job. Investors should realize that seeking out short-term yields (at low risk) can contribute to minor tracking error. Also, tracking error is just as likely to be positive as negative, so it should not be feared unduly.

Other European currency ETFs include:

• CurrencyShares British Pount Sterling Trust (NYSEArca:FXB - News); expense ratio .40%
• CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Trust (NYSEArca:FXS - News); expense ratio .40%
• CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSEArca:FXF - News); expense ratio .40%
• iPath GBP/USD Exchange Rate ETN (NYSEArca:GBB - News), .40%

The Japanese Yen is another major currency well-served by ETFs, including:

• CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSEArca:FXY - News), .40% annual fees
• iPath JPY/USD Exchange Rate ETN (NYSEArca:JYN - News), .40% annual fees
• WisdomTree Dreyfus Japanese Yen ETF (JYF), .35% fees

For a more active-minded investor, an interesting strategy is adopted by iPath Optimized Currency Carry ETN (NYSEArca:ICI - News). ICI systematically engages in the carry trade whereby low-yielding currencies are borrowed and exchanged for high-yielding ones. For instance, in 2008 ICI sold the Dollar to invest in the Euro and the Yen. In 2009 it invested most heavily in the Norwegian Krone based on borrowings from the Swedish Krona.

Because interest earned is less than interest paid on borrowings, there is locked-in interest income, but fees nibble into that and it comes at the risk that invested currencies (long) will fall while currencies borrowed (sold short) will rise. In ETFs tthe decision on what to buy and sell is not done subjectively. A standard optimization formula dictates the moves and takes into account expected risk and return with the goal of obtaining the best theoretical risk/reward ratio.

Active management, of course, does not guarantee superior returns as the following graph shows:

Passive Euro and Yen-based currency ETFs beat ICI handily in the past 12 months. But during its short lifespan, ICI has shown itself to be somewhat less volatile than most other pure currency plays. Much of this is due to its multiple-currency pool. Fees are .65%

PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (AMEX:DBV - News) is a somewhat similar ETF with fees of .0.75%. It buys US T-Bill for collateral to buy futures for three G10 currencies earning high interest and to sell futures for three G10 currencies earning low interest. It took a brief hit over the weekend of October 4-5, 2008, when European governments scrambled to fashion a bailout and futures markets went haywire.

An active fund with a regional focus is Barclays Asian and Gulf Currency Revaluation ETN (NYSEArca:PGD - News), with annual fees of 0.89%.

Important country or regional ETFs include:

• CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEArca:FXA - News), .04% fees
• CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSEArca:FXC - News), .04% fees
• CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEArca:FXE - News), .04% fees
• CurrencyShares Mexican Peso Trust (NYSEArca:FXM - News), .04% fees
• CurrencyShares Russian Ruble Trust ETF (NYSEArca:XRU - News), .04% fees

Betting for or against the dollar is perhaps the simplest way for dollar-denominated portfolios to hedge or speculate on currency risk. ETFs for this purpose include:

• PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (AMEX:UUP - News), .50%
• PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (AMEX:UDN - News), .50%

Both are straightforwarding trading tools which buy and sell futures contracts on the dollar and other major currencies. UUP aims to prosper if the dollar strengthens relative to a basket of other major currencies. It has been a loser in recent years but if the Dollar falls much further it could be quite compelling. During most periods when currency exchange rates are stable an investor is better off simply to leave Dollars in a short-term Treasury ETF. Fees of .50% are reasonable for a trading vehicle.

UDN is the mirror trading tool of UUP. It buys into a basket of futures of the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc, hoping they will rise relative to the Dollar. With the Dollar down considerably, it has captured much of its potential upside but with monetary inflation rampant could have further to go.

Investors will be disappointed to know that most currency ETFs generate high ordinary income taxes. The IRS considers most of them debt, so interest proceeds are ordinary income. Worse still, gain on the sale of a fund is taxed at ordinary income rates, not the much lower capital gains rate. An exception can occur with multiple-currency ETFs, however investors should consult with a tax accountant to confirm this for any specific fund.

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Pessimism Exacts a Price on the Skeptics

Hedge-fund manager Peter Thiel is suffering, not because he lost money in the downturn, but because he missed the rebound.

Mr. Thiel, a billionaire co-founder of online payment company PayPal and an early investor in Facebook, thinks the economy is far from recovered and has bet with the bears amid the relentless rally. His fund has seen double-digit declines as other hedge funds have racked up gains.

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"The recovery is not real," he says. "Deep structural problems haven't been solved and it's unclear how we will create jobs and get the economy growing again -- that's long been my thesis and it still is."

The contrarian view puts Mr. Thiel among a group of investors with impressive track records who are holding out, unwilling to buy into the notion of the economy's rebound.

In London, the largest fund of John Horseman's $4 billion hedge-fund firm is down 20% this year; "it is hard to build longer-term confidence when employment prospects and job markets are shrinking," he said in a client letter.

In New York, a large hedge fund run by investing power Renaissance Technologies dropped almost 12% through August by wagering on stocks with promising earnings prospects and betting against those seen as flimsier. And in Chicago, Benjamin Bornstein's smaller Prospero Capital Management lost almost 5% through the second quarter, but he is still shorting the market.

Heavy job losses, weak revenue growth for most companies, full stock-price valuations and an inability of the economy to grow without help from the government are all reasons Mr. Bornstein remains wary of stocks.

"I have rarely been so convinced that the next broader market move is down," says Mr. Bornstein, who avoided most of the market's troubles last year. "The problem is that governments do not create income or wealth, and current stimulus equates to a future tax liability. That will become a major concern in mid-2010 when the stimulus is done."

Mr. Thiel's Clarium Capital Management, which at one point last year had $6 billion in assets, has seen losses of nearly 16% through mid-September, compared with a 14% rise for hedge funds broadly through August, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc. Clarium now manages about $2 billion. In 2008, Clarium lost 4%, even as the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 38%, and the firm has recorded annual gains averaging 22% since inception in 2002, according to investors. Last year, the fund was sitting on gains of more than 40% before the collapse of energy prices caught Mr. Thiel by surprise, making Mr. Thiel's contrarian stance in the face of losses seem more gutsy.

For the skeptics, the stakes are high. The hedge-fund business had its worst year on record last year; another year of disappointing performance could be the death knell for many funds that struggled last year.

Mr. Thiel wouldn't seem like an obvious poster boy for the market's worrywarts. A 41-year-old former nationally ranked scholastic chess player and graduate of Stanford Law School, he was chief executive officer of online-pay service PayPal earlier this decade and scored big in 2002 when eBay Inc. bought the company for $1.5 billion. Mr. Thiel added to his venture-capital successes with early investments in firms like Facebook and Palantir Technologies, a high-tech firm that hunts for terrorists.

In 2002 he launched Clarium and scored impressive gains for several years, largely by buying up energy investments on the view that growing global demand and more limited supplies would boost oil prices.

For much of this year, Mr. Thiel's firm placed a series of bets against the market, in part because valuations on a range of global equity markets have looked rich, he says. As markets have climbed higher, he has been forced to scramble to trim the positions, to avoid deeper losses.

He has bet on the Japanese yen, purchased safe bonds, wagered on the dollar, all in the belief fear will return to the markets. He has taken other conservative steps because "a real, sustainable recovery is not possible without productivity growth."

"The U.S. and much of the developed world are not very competitive globally -- that would require difficult improvements in technology that I'm not seeing enough of," he says.

The most exciting technologies being developed, including robotics, rockets, artificial intelligence and the next wave of biotechnology, are several years down the road, Mr. Thiel argues.

Mr. Thiel says he is sensitive to a challenge to pessimistic investors who prospered during the tough period of the past two years -- becoming overly negative. Some of his investors ask Mr. Thiel if he could lose serious money in the short term, he says, even if he is right over the long haul. He is sticking to his stance.

"The government has helped stabilize the banking system, but I'm not sure we have a path toward sustainable growth," partly because consumers are dealing with debt and other issues, even as an energy crisis looms, he says. "It always feels unpatriotic to be negative. But too few people are focused on the real problems."

—Alistair Barr contributed to this article.

Write to Gregory Zuckerman at gregory.zuckerman@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications: Clarium Capital lost 16% in 2009. A chart accompanying an earlier version of this article incorrectly said Clarium lost 12%.

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The 10 Most Overhyped Products

It's every marketer's nightmare. A company pours millions into a new product, markets it like it's going to be a sure thing, and watches the media frenzy build. When the product release finally comes, it's just a matter of sitting back and watching the sales pour in.

But the cash registers remain silent. Consumers recoil at the product. The company becomes an object of ridicule. It's officially an overhyped product.

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The curse of the overhyped product can seize companies of any size, and it's often impossible to see it coming. It happened to McDonald's with the Arch Deluxe and to Coca-Cola with New Coke, but it also happened to a little-known inventor with a zippy new product called Segway.

Minyanville combed through the recent history of product marketing to find the ten most overhyped releases. They were meant to be remembered as revolutionary. Instead they were mostly forgotten.

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

1. Segway

It was going to reach $1 billion in sales faster than any company in history. It would be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy. Its creator said he imagined his invention used the world over: from battlefields to factory floors. We were going to redesign our cities around it.

The subject of this fawning hype? An electric scooter called the Segway.

When the first Segways went on sale to the public on Amazon.com in November 2002, inventor Dean Kamen and his crew believed the two-wheeled wonders, developed at a cost of more than $100 million, would prove an engineering marvel. The Segway wouldn't just serve as some expensive toy for tech geeks with fat wallets, they told us. No, this machine would fundamentally transform how men and women traveled all over the world, as urban centers banished cars in favor of "empowered individuals" riding high on their futuristic scooters.

But, fast forward seven years, and Segway hasn't glided to the world-changing success its founders predicted. The technology worked and the machines proved as efficient and eco-friendly as the company envisioned. Kamen's company erected a factory in New Hampshire capable of pumping out 40,000 Segways a month, but by 2006, only 23,500 Segways had been sold. With a hefty $5,000 price tag, the Segway never lived up to the hype: Americans didn't buy the device in revolutionary numbers and, when traveling to work or the office, they still prefer a car, a bike, or their own two feet.

2. New Coke

In the mid-1980s, conspiracy buffs briefly shifted their attention from the grassy knoll to Atlanta to focus their fervid minds on Coca-Cola. Some believed that New Coke, rolled out on April 23, 1985 and all but obliterated by the return of the original version on July 11 of the same year, was an elaborate plot to goose sales.

It wasn't. Instead, it remains a classic tale of failed market research.

By the early 1980s, Pepsi was close to knocking Coca-Cola from its perch as the nation's leading soft drink. Worse, the sugared cola market continued to shrink as more consumers turned to diet drinks, citrus-based, and caffeine-free beverages. Coca-Cola needed something new and needed it fast.

It chose to think the unthinkable: change the formula for the "temperance drink" created by druggist John Pemberton. After extensive testing, the company developed a new drink that many considered tastier and smoother than the original and called it New Coke.

Coke enthusiasts protested and panicked, stocking up on the original formula before it was pulled from shelves. Coca-Cola fled to action. Just 79 days after it was discontinued, the original formula came back with a new name, Coke Classic. New Coke became Coke II and eventually faded into a distant, unpleasant memory.

AP Photo/Richard Drew

3. Arch Deluxe

The menu addition was unnecessary, the marketing strategy was ill-conceived and, above all, the burger wasn't tasty. McDonald's brief fling with the Arch Deluxe burger is not only regarded as one of the more curious and pricey endeavors in the fast food industry's history, but one of the most overhyped.

McDonald's enlisted Executive Chef Andrew Selvaggio to concoct a recipe that would appeal to a more sophisticated palate. Already hinting at disaster, tweaking and perfecting the sandwich lasted two years -- including two months solely for the mustard ingredient. In the end -- unbeknownst to both Selvaggio and McDonald's brass -- they created a wholly undelectable combination.

Promotion for the product's launch began in 1996 and would eventually cost the company $150 to $200 million. Completely abandoning the "family friendly" tone of its ads in the past, McDonald's began a campaign that purposefully scorned the unrefined taste buds of kids, who were the company's top customers.

Ultimately, the Arch Deluxe's taste was what mattered and, much to the restaurant chain's dismay, reviews weren't spectacular. The medley of McDonald's standard burger ingredients with peppered bacon, Spanish onions, and a mustard-mayo blend failed to win over most customers -- let alone the children. Aside from the unpopular taste, the Arch Deluxe sported a caloric level of 610 and a fat content of 32 grams, earning dour reviews from nutritional advocates. The Arch Deluxe was eventually discontinued, though company officials refused to chalk it up to poor sales.

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Emerging' Stock Markets Are Looking Better

On the heels of one of the worst years in stock-market history, some experts say investors should shift more money into a surprising area: emerging markets.

For years, shares and bonds from emerging markets made investors wary. Sure, their growth often could be much stronger than that of developed economies, partly because of robust population growth and steadily improving standards of living. But countries such as Brazil, Mexico, China, South Korea and many in Africa often were handicapped by heavy debt, weak currencies, poor corporate governance and high volatility.

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That view is changing. Last year's financial meltdown raised questions about the attractiveness of developed nations, which have been dealing with their own serious debt, currency and governance issues.

And with few analysts predicting robust growth in developed markets for some time, there's a new appreciation for the promise of robust expansion in some emerging markets.

"Most developed countries have similar economic problems," including over-indebtedness and aging demographics, says James Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management, who predicts that many developing nations will see their currencies rise in value, helping investments in those nations. "Emerging countries possess stronger inherent growth possibilities."

Daniel Arbess, manager of the Xerion Fund, a hedge fund, at Perella Weinberg Partners, says that "emerging markets are arguably the single most important avatar of investment opportunity for our generation. The demand for commodities to support the modernization and urbanization of these and other developing economies, and the demand for food and products by growing consumer classes, should continue to fuel opportunities for years to come."

Faster Growth

Some stock markets in developing nations, including Brazil, already have soared from their lows reached earlier this year. The widely followed MSCI Emerging Market index, which tracks emerging-markets shares, is up 60% this year, compared with a gain of 10% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (The Dow fell 1.6% last week.)

Tim Foley

On a price-to-earnings basis, however, shares of many emerging-markets companies are comparable to those in developed regions, says Marko Dimitrijevic, a hedge-fund manager who focuses on emerging markets. On a price-to-sales basis, they're still a bit pricey, however.

Profits of companies in emerging markets "are growing faster than developed markets, yet often still trade at a discount" based on their strong growth and reasonable P/E ratios, says Mr. Dimitrijevic, who runs Everest Capital, a top-performing fund based in Miami.

He's a fan of India, Korea, Nigeria and the Middle East region; he's less keen on Mexico and China, which are more expensive.

Nations outside of the U.S. and developed Europe now account for almost half of global gross domestic product, Mr. Dimitrijevic says. It was less than 40% in 1990. It helps that many of these nations are transitioning from dependence on demand from developed nations to a more balanced exposure to both local and foreign demand.

And while nations with emerging markets once were criticized for excessive government involvement, the rush by the U.S. and other nations to rescue companies and rack up debt to spur economic growth has taken the air out of that argument.

Dangers still loom for investors focused on emerging markets, though. Accounting standards in some countries aren't up to par, disclosure can be less robust, and the size of some markets in Africa and elsewhere can be small.

Some doubt the ability of emerging markets to buck the likely slow growth of the developed world.

Beware a 'Double Dip'

"If your world view is that the recession is over and we are about to start a great bull market, then emerging markets should outperform," says Matthew Tuttle, who runs investment advisory firm Tuttle Wealth Management. "If you believe, as we do, that we are in for a double dip [another downturn for the economy] and things will get worse before they get better, then emerging markets will not be a good place to be."

Mr. Tuttle agrees that nations like Brazil, Russia, India and China should do well over the long haul. But he worries that these stock markets have gained between 50% and 100% this year, saying that "those types of numbers aren't sustainable...I would wait for some sort of pullback."

Analysts say bonds from many emerging-markets nations are less attractive than stock because so many of these countries now are rated investment grade. So investors are no longer being compensated for the risks of going abroad.

Individual investors can find it difficult to buy debt from companies in emerging markets -- and some small companies can be harder to track.

As a result, Mr. Tuttle recommends mutual funds such as the Lazard Emerging Markets Portfolio fund, which is up 58% so far this year and has an expense ratio of 1.5%, and debt-and-currency-focused PIMCO Developing Local Markets fund, which has climbed 19% and has an expense ratio of 1.1%. Among so-called tactical funds -- which usually can go into all kinds of markets -- Ivy Asset Strategy fund is up 19% this year, and Blackrock Global Allocation fund is up 17%.

Exchange-traded funds like the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund track the MSCI index, providing exposure to Brazil, China and other markets, though not to smaller markets. It's up more than 50% so far this year.

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Texas Tech invites the public to a gallery of team frustration (Updated: Tech pulls plug on Twitter in response)

Editor's note: In response to media attention on players' social networking sites, Texas Tech issued a team-wide ban on Twitter sites after this post was originally published Monday morning. Please see the update at the bottom of the post.

Texas Tech boss Mike Leach has never been much for customs, conventions or arbitrary constraints of any kind, an independent streak that's tended to work in his favor as long as the Raiders' profile has continued to climb. With increased success, though, comes increased expectations, and after Saturday night's last-second loss at Houston dropped its record to 2-2, Tech's chances of equalling last year's breakthrough, 11-win record are essentially nil -- the first time in Leach's nearly decade-long tenure that the team has demonstrably regressed from one season to the next, and the kind of trend that can threaten to turn an eccentric savant into an irresponsible flake.

Naturally, that's led to some frustration, some of it public -- see Marlon Williams' Twitter account for Exhibit A, where the senior linebacker admitted Sunday morning the season is not going as expected, and by Sunday afternoon was expressing outright frustration with Leach's flakiness:

That post has been deleted, but Williams' frustrated reaction to the Houston loss -- "WTF I can't believe what happened man my senior season isn't goin anything like what I busted my azz for .... New week now F$&@" -- remains for now, along with similar sentiments from offensive lineman Brandon Carter:

"This is not how I saw our season," [Carter] wrote on Twitter early Sunday morning. "I just cried like am (sic) idiot. I want us to be so good my last year and I feel like I’m letting everyone down."

Carter also used the feed to break the news that he'd been suspended for next week's game against New Mexico and stripped of his captaincy, which the school later acknowledged, after that post, too, had been deleted once it fueled a round of wire stories Sunday night. One of these days, players are going to realize Facebook and Twitter are public statements akin to sitting in front of a microphone or issuing a press release, and then we won't know anything.

[UPDATE, 1:51 p.m. ET] Aaaaand Texas Tech players are hereby banned from Twitter. That took a few hours longer than I expected, actually, but Leach is not really into the whole online thing, as we learned in July:

So word may travel a little slower to his desk. Where will we go for our Red Raider frustration news now?

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It may be a piece of cake but it sure spells disaster

Book » There are several new reality television shows that portray the glamorous side of the cake decorating world. But Cake Wrecks: When Professional Cakes Go Hilariously Wrong reveals the not-so-perfect side of this sweet business. The hardback book, ($12.99) sprung from author Jen Yates' popular food blog at www.cakewrecks.com. It includes dozens of photos of funny, sad, ugly and sometimes creepy cakes. The grammar goofs are especially funny -- you'll be surprised how many ways one can misspell the words "Happy Birthday." But it's the decorating disasters, like the sexual harassment cake complete with illustration, that will make you ask "What were they thinking?" Keep the kids away from the frosting faux-paus pages. Most of these cakes unintentionally resemble parts of the human anatomy and are sure to make a birthday girl blush. -- Kathy Stephenson

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Pop Top: What's new on DVD

"Monsters Vs. Aliens" » This funny and energetic computer-animated tale of monsters hired to save the world comes to home video. Rated PG.

"Management"

"How I Met Your Mother -- Season Four "

"The Wiggles: Big, Big Show!"

"CSI: NY -- The Complete Fifth Season"

"Life on Mars -- The Complete Series"

"The Unit -- Season Four"

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Comedian David Cross is a boundary hopper

Comedian and actor David Cross' hands will be sore Monday night during his stand-up act because it will immediately follow two hours of book-signing at a local bookstore.

"I'll put them in soup," Cross said about his remedy for cramped fingers.

Cross, 45, is best known for his roles in two TV series that were loved by critics but ignored by viewers. The first was the short-lived Fox series "Arrested Development," where Cross played Tobias Fünke, a licensed "analrapist" (cross between analyst and therapist) who wants to join the Blue Man Group. The second was the HBO series "Mr. Show," a sketch-comedy show that ran from 1995 to 1998.

But Cross has found the most success as a stand-up comic who blends observational humor with left-wing politics. That is what led him to write a book, although he admitted he never reads books.

"I got a phone call from a man I had never met," Cross said about who initiated the book idea. The man, Cross said, identified himself as Cross' literary agent. "I didn't know I had a literary agent," Cross said.

The result is I Drink for a Reason, a collection of essays, satirical fiction, advice and lists that displays Cross' wicked wit, full of media and celebrity mockery with potentially offensive anti-religion commentary.

Cross said much of his new stand-up material is encapsulated in the book, such as a story about how conservatives once said Mitt Romney would have a hard time being elected president because he flip-flopped on gay marriage. Cross, a strident atheist, said the real reason was because Romney was the follower of a religion founded by a "convicted con man."

That type of blunt commentary is why Cross is loved by some and hated by others. He hasn't toured the United States in five years, he said, and "I have a lot to say."

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Hamilton, Hamill are back on the ice to inspire others

Los Angeles » Scott Hamilton will skate on TV for the first time since battling a brain tumor, joining fellow Olympian and cancer survivor Dorothy Hamill for a Thanksgiving Day special intended to inspire viewers to triumph over illness.

"Kaleidoscope," airing Nov. 26 on Fox, also will feature 1992 Olympic figure skating champion Kristi Yamaguchi and two-time medalist Nancy Kerrigan, along with Olympic hopefuls Johnny Weir and Rachael Flatt.

Hamill, the 1976 gold medalist, will skate to a song performed by Olivia Newton-John. Both women were diagnosed with breast cancer.

The TV program is intended to entertain and motivate, Hamilton said.

"We're trying to get the word out in a way that won't make people turn the channel the second they hear the 'C' word," Hamilton said. "It's about embracing life and moving forward and knowing you can get back to your better self, your best self, even after something as invasive and as challenging as a cancer diagnosis and treatment."

Winner of the 1984 Olympic gold medal and a four-time world champion, Hamilton was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 1997 and with a noncancerous brain tumor in 2004.

For Hamilton, 51, who stopped skating eight months before his tumor diagnosis, "Kaleidoscope" represents more than a one-time comeback. He rediscovered his zest for the sport and its demands after deciding to perform in his annual benefit for the Cleveland Clinic, where he's been treated. The fundraiser is set for Nov. 7.

"The whole last year, I was putting the time in the gym and time in the rink and working as hard as I can to be as good as I can, and really enjoying the process. It's the best decision I made since -- well, since I got married," said Hamilton, who lives in Nashville, Tenn.

He's gotten "extraordinary" health benefits from training, with his doctor telling him his health has greatly improved and to keep at it. Hamilton takes several medications for conditions caused by radiation to shrink his tumor.

Hamilton said he wants to show his two sons, a 6-year-old and a toddler, the importance of meeting a challenge. He'd like that to include a return to skating professionally, he said, which he did for two decades and loved.

"I'm hoping to continue to improve and get my level back up to better than where it was five years ago, when I retired," he said.

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Marriage is scary, risky business

A close friend got married Friday evening. The happy couple was hitched by Salt Lake County Justice Court Judge Peggy Acomb in her office at the Salt Lake County Complex.

As weddings go, it was perfect. People cried, nobody got shot and there were cookies afterward.

It wasn't the first wedding for Clarke and Francine. Judging from the way they looked, it could have been their first though. Francine was radiant. Clarke looked idiotically happy.

The couple met when Clarke's nephew bashed his ride into Francine's car in Sanpete County. A few months later, the entire matter was resolved by a judge.

When I spoke to Clarke before the ceremony, he confessed to being happy but also "scared." This only made sense. He's had marriage experience. He knows that it's a risky business.

About half of all first marriages end in divorce. Odds are even worse for second marriages. Depending on whose stats you use, second marriages fail 105 percent of the time. Third marriages fail 200 percent of the time. Fourth marriages end in prison. Fifth marriages are considered a form of mental illness.

Experts say this is because so many subsequent marriages happen on the rebound. The participants don't know each other well enough, aren't thinking clearly, and are too set in their ways.

By those accounts, I should be divorced. I married my wife less than five months after falling in love with her, I've never had a clear thought my entire

life, and 34 years later, I still refuse to eat broccoli.

Granted, this doesn't make me an expert on marriage, but I'm probably doing way better than most Hollywood actors are.

Whatever number marriage you're on, the odds of it succeeding have less to do with how it happened than how you keep making it happen. You have to work at it.

Just before the ceremony, I asked Clarke if he loved Francine. He said he did. I believed him because I've seen the two of them together, and because he can't lie worth spit even to himself.

But being in love isn't always reason enough to get married. Even a monkey can be that for five minutes. Humans, especially men, have to examine our more evolved feelings and emotions. I explained it to Clarke.

ME: "Are you afraid of Francine?"

HIM: "I think so."

He wasn't getting it. Was he afraid of losing her? Did the thought of disappointing her scare him? Was he worried about not being what she needed him to be? Did the mere thought of her falling out of love with him keep him awake at night?

HIM: "OK, I'm terrified."

ME: "Then you're good to go."

As we headed into the judge's chambers, Clarke asked me if all of this worked the same way for women. Did similar feelings of fear of their husbands exist in wives?

"Hell if I know," I said. "I'm too scared to ask mine."

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Relationships should be built on equality

Dear Carolyn » I have been dating my boyfriend for a year . I am 30 and he is 33.

I am acutely aware of my desire to have kids by 35.

In past relationships I have tried to play the "cool girlfriend" -- you know, the one who doesn't pressure her man about getting married or having kids. Unfortunately, that attitude has gotten me a string of men who are happy to plod along in the dating mode.

I told my boyfriend exactly this, and he said nothing. He reassured me that he cared about me, but said he "didn't know" when I asked how he envisioned his life in five years. He still hasn't told me he loves me (I told him, because I absolutely do).

I also said I want my life to include marriage and kids, and if he and I aren't headed there, then it's pointless.

Do I give him time? Break it off? If we broke up next week, I would not regret the time I spent with him. If we break up in six months because he still "isn't sure," I am going to be really angry and bitter about relationships.

The "Pushy" One

Dear Pushy » Your needs are clear and legitimate and I get it.

I also would get it if he wrote in worried that his girlfriend loves him only as a sperm donor. And while that might not be fair you have to consider this from his perspective, or else you're not being fair.

Your needs do not trump his feelings. In a loving relationship of equals,

his feelings matter as much as your feelings, his needs matter as much as your needs, and so on. Even valid priorities can't muscle out the other person's selfhood. It's not about sitting back and playing it "cool," it's about appreciating that you have an independent, sentient human being on the other end of this decision, and tap-tap-tapping your foot because his six months are up is not the way to show this respect.

There will be a day when he's had sufficient time to make up his mind, and reasonable people can disagree on when that time is -- but after only six months, this possibly unreasonable person wishes you were challenging your own assumptions about him a bit more.

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First-aid top 10: Must-haves for outdoor adventurers

As with many good ideas, the founders of Adventure Medical Kits more or less stumbled onto the idea of developing specialized first-aid kits for wilderness, adventure and outdoor travel.

Frank Meyer, who founded the Oakland, Calif.-based company along with Eric Weiss and Amy Quirk, said that when Weiss was training to be an emergency room physician and attending conferences, he kept getting asked by adventure travelers about what items they should have in a first-aid kit when traveling abroad to such places as Nepal.

"A light bulb went off," said Meyer, who this year attended the Summer Outdoor Retailer show in Salt Lake City. "Nobody was doing this stuff and this could be a good market. That was 23 years ago."

Now, the company offers around 30 specialized kits for individuals, families and groups, almost all of which include a book on wilderness and travel first-aid written by Weiss. The kits also provide numerous custom-made tools for emergency operations such as removing a tick, quickly treating a blister or pulling out a splinter.

Beyond such basic supplies, another component of outdoor emergency care is knowing how to use them.

"The best thing to take in your kit is what's in your head," said Gerrish Willis, a veteran Salt Lake river running enthusiast and backpacker. "Get some training. The stuff in the kit is useful but get the training first. Knowing what to do is more important than having all the tools in the kit. An emergency is not the time to pull out a book to figure out what to do."

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